India Faces Potential $6B Hit to Exports as U.S. Tariffs Rise; Could Soar to $31B: Emkay
New Delhi [ India ], March 29 (ANI): India might observe a decline of approximately US D $6 billion, or 0.16 percent of its GDP, in exports to the US If comprehensive tariffs of 10 percent are implemented, Emkay Global, a research and investment company, stated in their recent report.
The financial services firm stated in the report that the effect might rise considerably, potentially hitting as high as US D $31 billion if tariffs increase to 25 percent.
Although the details of reciprocal tariff actions are not clear, a comprehensive sector-wide tax at the national level remains undecided. India It seems to be the most plausible scenario, the report further stated.
Even though there could be repercussions in crucial areas like automotive, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, the report emphasizes that India The sectors most at risk include apparel and gemstones/jewelry.
Moreover, the report proposes possible “quick victories” in tariff talks, like increasing imports of energy and defense equipment, which might offset certain losses.
We recognize these 'Quick Gains' as: i) boosting crude oil and natural gas imports. US , ii) enhance defense acquisitions and collaboration, iii) decrease duties on specific agricultural and food products, and iv) diminish tariffs on imported electric vehicles," the report stated, adding that India ought to engage in talks with the US By making concessions in certain crucial areas, this could benefit foreign relations without negatively impacting local businesses, yet they are
crucial from a political and economic standpoint for Trump, as compensation for reducing tariffs in other areas.
The document further states that the wider US A tariff war extends beyond mere trade policies, as China is expected to remain the focus of such actions. Additionally, it notes that India The opportunities arising from this war are limited.
" India has failed to capture global market share in the lower-skill sectors that China abandoned after Covid, and China focuses more on exporting sophisticated goods. India (Seventy-five percent of China's exports to the global market are complex compared to forty-five percent for) India ), resulting in few remaining chances for India ," the report added.
Starting from April 2, the Trump administration plans to introduce retaliatory tariffs on trade partners under what they call the "Fair and Reciprocal Tariff Plan."
In other news, Arvind Virmani, a member of Niti Aayog, stated that bilateral trade between India and the US Is expected to be signed before the year ends.
On March 29, meanwhile, the US President Donald Trump stated that the tariffs will likely have a positive outcome between New Delhi and Washington, D.C., expressing optimism about the result. (ANI)